ON FUNDAMENTALS OF FORECASTING INDIVIDUAL BEHAVIOR OF CONVICTS SUBJECT TO ALTERNATIVE PENALTIES AND MEASURES

Abstract

This article analyzes the recommendations on individual forecasting of behavior of probationers: the technique of "Portrait", which allows us to differentiate the controlled persons into three groups (categories) depending on what behavior a convict is presumably expected to show: the first group of persons who are presumably expected to commit a new (recurrent) offence during their probationary period, the second group - persons who are supposedly expected to show lawful behavior during the probationary period and after its expiry; the third group of persons who presumably won't commit a recurrent crime during the probationary period, but may do so after its expiry. The conclusions and proposals presented in the article are based on the results of the research activities of 9 Correction Services of Central Administration of Federal Enforcement Service in Kemerovo region and Altai Republic Administration of Federal Enforcement Service, as well as the analysis of the characteristics of probationers who had committed crimes during their probationary period, amounted to 341 people. The author also studied personal files of 450 convicts and interviewed 42 inspection officers.