Peculiarities of Application of Mathematical Modeling Methods in Forensic Fire and Technical Expertise in the Study of the Dynamics of Fire Hazards

The paper deals with the issues of law enforcement of methods (techniques) of mathematical modeling within the framework of forensic fire technical examinations in the study of the dynamics of fire hazards. The normative documents in the field of technical regulation, containing calculation methods and techniques, and their application in modern conditions in the framework of the production of forensic fire technical examinations are analyzed. The issue of admissibility, degree of accuracy and the scope of techniques (methods), as well as the use of probabilistic calculation results in the production of forensic examinations is considered. To eliminate doubts and controversial issues regarding the use of typical initial data and the correct choice of mathematical models, it is proposed to conduct an extended comparative study on various fires, taking into account the analysis of reliable data obtained during the investigation of fire cases. The paper discusses the issues of validation of the methodology for determining the dangerous factors of a fire and calculating the probability of evacuation of people within the framework of a forensic fire-technical examination.

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